Why Josh Shapiro is slamming Kamala's "utter bullshit"

Walz’s Tough Week
Minnesota’s welfare fraud scandal has exploded into the national conversation over the past week. For the uninitiated, a quick recap: A state COVID relief program intended to help hungry children was hijacked by systemic and brazen fraud. 86 people have been criminally charged, 78 of whom are Somali Americans or Somali immigrants.

The Trump administration, of course, deserves some of the credit for the story spreading: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent announced an investigation into claims that tax dollars had been diverted to a Somali terrorist group and DHS Sec. Kristi Noem claimed, without offering evidence, that “50%” of Minnesota immigration visas are fraudulent. And then there was Trump himself: After calling Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz the r-word last week, he this week labeled Somali Americans “garbage” and said they’ve “destroyed Minnesota.” Needless to say, the conservative media ecosystem has given the story a lot of coverage (my former colleague Grace Weinstein has a good rundown), much of which is fraught with xenophobia or outright racism.

But, as was the case during post-COVID public disorder or the 2023-2024 migrant crisis, liberals would be making a mistake to let conservatives’ rhetorical excesses be an excuse to ignore the underlying subject. This is a scandal, and a legitimate issue. Mainstream national outlets are now covering it as such, and it’s all over local news in Minnesota. The New York Times’ story especially reads like a conservative caricature of liberal governance: One paragraph notes how the fraudsters used “accusations of racism” to cajole state officials into keeping the money flowing (it worked). Whatever else the president or his allies may be inserting into the story, the whole saga does not reflect well on Walz, who is now asking Minnesotans to extend his governorship to 12 years.

Notably, unlike some past incidents, Trump’s language and antics have so far not overshadowed the original issue. Even stories about Trump’s tirades give heavy coverage to the scandal itself, and looking at Google data, searches for Walz and the actual scandal outpace searches for Trump’s statements.

FWIW: Walz wasn’t the only Democratic governor Trump feuded with this week. He went after Jared Polis for refusing to transfer Tina Peters, an election clerk convicted of a cartoonish attempt at election fraud, from state to federal prison. Trump pretty clearly wants her under his jurisdiction to deliver a pardon. Polis has declined and had a, presumably intentionally, bland reaction to the president’s posts. 

And keep an eye on this: 21 states are in a showdown with the federal government over whether to turn over personal data on food stamp recipients. The federal Ag. Dept. said this week that, unless it receives the data, it would withhold all food stamp funding from the states, which comprise about 45% of the country’s population.

Shapiro’s Spotlight
The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta — one of the best in the business in my opinion — published a mammoth profile of Pennsylvania governor and all-but-certain 2028 candidate Josh Shapiro on Wednesday. Most striking is how it opens: Alberta breaks the news to Shapiro that Kamala Harris has written about him, not flatteringly, in her recent book, giving us the rare treat of hearing a politician’s authentic reaction. Among the words Shapiro chooses:

“That’s complete and utter bullshit.”
“Her accounts are just blatant lies.”
“She’s trying to sell books and cover her ass.”

They’re really striking things to say on the record about your party’s last presidential nominee (at least for a Democrat) and all the more notable given the knock on Shapiro as too rehearsed and on-message. The rest of the piece is full of similarly juicy details, including reports of his early ambition and his obvious 2028 campaign-in-waiting (“Every word is smooth and rehearsed, the raw material of a stump speech coming together”). 

Personally, I’m left with the impression of a high-risk, high-reward candidacy — someone who could either end up in the White House in 2029 or never get through the early vetting in 2027. As for the much-joked-about similarities to Barack Obama’s voice, Shapiro says he “just doesn’t hear it.”

Pollodex
Emerson finds a crowded field in the race for California governor: Republican Chad Bianco leads with 13%, followed by Republican Steve Hilton and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell tied at 12%, and former Rep. Katie Porter at 11%. All others are in single digits.

Some context: California uses a unique all-party primary system, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advancing to the general election. The poll is fuel for some long-simmering Democrats’ fears that their excess of candidates could split the vote enough to allow two Republicans to sneak into the general election. My read: Very unlikely, we’re a long way away from primary day. 

The pollster also has Gavin Newsom leading a hypothetical Democratic primary contest field in his home state, getting a 13-point bump since their last survey in August (Full results: Newsom 36%, Buttigieg 16%, AOC 13%, Harris 9%, all others in single digits).

Roanoke College finds Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger broadly popular with a +23% (56-33) favorability rating. Outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin still has a positive approval rating (54%), while Trump is way underwater, at 63% disapproval.

Another poll finds Maine Gov. Janet Mills trailing veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner in the Democratic primary for Senate. This one, from Z to A Research, puts Platner, the favorite of progressive groups, in the lead 58%-38%. Like others that have surveyed the race, the pollster is not enormously high-quality, but it’s hard to argue with the trend: Platner has led in 5/6 publicly released surveys so far. 

Mitchell Research has Republican Rep. John James leading the three-way race for Michigan governor. This is an unusual race flying under a lot of folks’ radar: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who was a Democrat until 2024, is running a serious campaign as an Independent, and it seems to be sinking in for Democrats that that problem isn’t going away. I’ve noticed a lot more operatives going after Duggan in recent weeks. Keep an eye on it. (Full result: 37% for James, 31% for Democrat Jocelyn Benson, and 18% for Duggan)

Victory Research has J.B Pritzker widely leading his Republican challengers in his quest for a third term. On the other hand: supermajorities are dissatisfied with his handling of crime, immigration, and taxes, and a plurality of voters also say they don’t want him to run for president. One result that raised my eyebrows: Pritzker’s lieutenant governor, Julianna Stratton, for whom he’s done his best to clear a path to the Senate, is in third in the Democratic Senate primary.

That’s all for this week, folks. Enjoy your weekend.