Election Day is, against all odds, almost here.
Tuesday will bring hundreds of results to sort through in the weeks ahead. But the stories they tell will be far simpler. Ahead of the polls opening, here’s your guide to what’s on the line for the nation’s leading Democratic governors — and what waking up to success on Wednesday morning would look like.
Gretchen Whitmer
Races to watch: MI-Gov, MI-AG, MI-Sen, Michigan House of Representatives, MI-04, MI-07, MI-22.
What to know: Democrats are favored to retain their control of the governorship and state constitutional offices. Three Republican-held, Trump-won House districts (MI-04, MI-07, MI-22) are toss-ups that could go either way. Most crucial is the state’s expensive, nasty race for Senate, where Whitmer endorsed against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in the primary and which is considered Republicans’ best chance for a Senate pickup this cycle.
A good night: It’s worth remembering the political landscape in Michigan when Whitmer won the governorship eight years ago. At the time, Republicans held all statewide offices, a majority on the state Supreme Court, a 9-4 majority in the congressional delegation, and wide majorities in both houses of the legislature. That dominance has been slowly eroded in the eight years since, as Michigan became the success story for state Democrats during the Trump era. Now, Tuesday’s elections will determine what political legacy Whitmer leaves behind. A good night would begin with flipping the state House and holding all statewide offices, both of which appear likely. The true bar for Whitmer, though, would come with success in trickier federal races — holding the Senate seat and flipping at least two of the House races.
Gavin Newsom
Races to watch: CA-01, CA-06, CA-41, CA-48, CA-22, CA-07, CA-34; the billionaire tax referendum.
What to know: California’s gerrymandered map has basically locked up four new House seats for the party, and one more is a toss-up. Because of California’s unique, top-two primary system, where two members of one party can compete in the November election, there are two long-serving, older Democratic incumbents (Doris Matsui in CA-07 and Mike Thompson in CA-34) who are facing challenges from younger progressives. The state will also vote on a novel billionaire’s tax, a ballot proposal that has split the party and put Newsom in the uncomfortable position of opposing a prominent progressive priority.
A good night: For Newsom, it’s imperative that the Democratic gerrymander he championed does not backfire, as it appears Republican-drawn maps in Florida and Texas may. As of now, Democrats appear well-positioned in House elections, primed to pick up the four seats through gerrymandering alone. A fifth, currently held by David Valadao, the last remaining House Republican who voted to impeach Trump, seems to be leaning Democrats’ way. The fates of Matsui and Thompson will be a test for Newsom’s political clout, especially given his long record of defending President Biden over the age issue. Proposition 40, which would institute the billionaire tax, has been a headache for Newsom, who would have rather avoided the issue altogether. But if he’s in this position, he needs to win.
Andy Beshear
Races to watch: KY-06, GA-Gov, OH-Gov, TX-Gov, OK-Gov.
What to know: If a House majority is all but certain for Democrats and a Senate majority is closer to 50-50, Democrats’ prospects for winning a majority of governorships fall somewhere in between. Beshear will be interested in the results all over the map — thirty-six states’ governorships are up for grabs — but particularly the toss-up states he’s invested heavily in. Given the controversial questions around resource allocation, the margins will also matter in states where Democrats are likely to come up short, like Oklahoma and Texas. Back home, Democrats seem to have an increasingly solid shot at flipping a solidly red House seat.
A good night: Beshear’s term as head of the Democratic Governors Association ends in December, and how his time is remembered will come down to Tuesday’s results. The bar is simple: win a majority of governorships for the first time in 18 years. That would require a net flip of two governorships, which appears increasingly likely. Where victory comes will matter: according to public and private numbers, the toss-up races the DGA has poured the most money into include Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Sweeping the battlegrounds would be both a symbolic and practical victory, diversifying the party’s leadership and potentially expanding the 2028 map. The cherry on top would be flipping Kentucky’s 6th district, which voted for Beshear by 20 points in 2023 and backed Trump by 15 in 2024.
Josh Shapiro
Races to watch: PA-Gov, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-01, Pennsylvania state Senate.
What to watch: A quartet of Republican-held House races is in play, three of which are considered better-than-even bets to flip. With the state House likely to stay in Democratic hands, the Republican-controlled state Senate is where the real action is. Shapiro has poured millions of dollars and countless hours into the effort to take it. That’s no easy feat: any Democratic majority would require winning more than one district that went solidly for Trump in 2024. But people I’ve talked to now consider it the more likely outcome on Tuesday, and the early vote numbers have brought good news for Democrats.
A good night: As I’ve written before, the night begins and ends for Shapiro with the state legislature — gaining a Democratic trifecta is a prerequisite for Tuesday going well for the governor. Shapiro himself hopes to win re-election by 20 points or more, a margin that seems increasingly likely to Pennsylvania politicos I’ve talked to. With a victory that big, the governor should be expected to bring at least three — and potentially all four — House flips along. It’s not unnoticed by some that Shapiro could then lay claim to giving national Democrats the same number of pickups as California’s redistricting effort.
Wes Moore
Races to watch: The redistricting referendum, NV-Gov, GA-Gov, WI-Gov.
What to know: Moore is cruising to reelection, running against the same far-right opponent he soundly defeated four years ago. His state features no competitive downballot races. But Marylanders are voting on a referendum, Question 3, which eases the path for the state to further gerrymander its congressional map. The question of the state’s constitution was central to Moore’s failure to pass redistricting earlier this year, and he poured significant money and political capital into the effort. Moore, currently the country’s only Black governor, has also made repeated trips on behalf of Democrats’ gubernatorial nominees in Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin, all of whom would be the first Black governors of their states.
A good night: Moore is guaranteed re-election. But success would come in running up the score and exceeding his 32-point margin from 2022, which will be the bar for his performance. Polling has been limited on the redistricting amendment, but the most recent survey found voters opposing it. Defeat would be a notable political embarrassment for Moore, compounding his defeat this spring. On the other hand, a breakthrough for Black political representation in governors’ mansions, especially in swing states, could be a boon to his national ambitions.
JB Pritzker
Races to watch: GA-Gov, TX-Gov, KS-Sen.
What to know: Pritzker is another governor with a sleepy home front, as he’s guaranteed to win re-election and his state features no competitive races. He has, however, invested heavily in competitive races in other states, the outcome of which will reverberate for him. His lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, is also heading to the Senate after Tuesday.
A good night: Pritzker won re-election in 2022 with a smaller margin than his first win in 2018. While that was understandable given the rightward shift in the national mood, it raises the stakes for his performance this year, when he’s seeking a third term. Success would be winning by his largest margin yet, more than 15 points, which both the polls and strategists I’ve talked to indicate is likely. He’ll also be looking for a return on his investment in competitive races; he and his PAC sent millions to support candidates like Keisha Lance Bottoms and Gina Hinojosa, both of whom he provided critical support to when they lagged in fundraising. Still, he’s likely earned chits regardless of the final outcome.
That’s all for this week. Thanks to all readers - new and old - for your loyalty this cycle. I’ll be back next week in the aftermath. See you then.
Worthy reads
If you want a full-sicko political nerd guide to Tuesday’s elections, check out Daniel Nichanian’s cheat sheet at Bolts.
The New York Times has a discussion directly addressing many folks’ core question: how much can the polls be trusted?
In RealClearPolitics, Susan Crabtree writes of the stakes of Michigan’s elections this year, where a verdict will be rendered on questions of identity, immigration, and belonging.
In The Nation, Sena Chang spotlights the battle over youth turnout, which could end up being one of the key storylines of the election.
Politico’s Jessica Piper underscores one of the cycle’s clearest lessons: after Trump, we could see a yawning financial gap open up between Republicans and Democrats.
In The American Prospect, Whitney Curry Wimbish writes about the impact of the federal Medicaid cuts, an issue that could be politically potent, but substantively challenging for would-be Democratic governors in states like Iowa and Georgia.
And in the Washington Post, Ruy Teixeira, a critical but informed voice when it comes to Democrats’ direction, warns that success on Tuesday could mask deeper, necessary reform.
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