With just over a month until Election Day, the country is on the brink of a potentially seismic change to its governance.
No, I don’t mean the battle for the House majority, which forecasters have expected to go Democrats’ way for months. I don’t mean the Senate, which is now, depending on which source you believe, either a jump ball, slightly leaning towards, or decidedly favoring Democrats. Instead, I’m looking at state governments, where a potentially-very-real, potentially-mounting, don’t-jinx-it blue wave could sweep Democrats into a position they have not seen in decades: leading a majority of state governments, in control of more trifectas than Republicans, and governing a clear majority of the country.
It’s a prospect that seemed out of reach even a few months ago, let alone at the beginning of the 2026 cycle. Most remarkable, achieving it would not require drawing the kind of royal flush on which Democrats’ Senate hopes rest. Instead, an increasingly clear path for the party is opening up — one that could make American governance look very different after November. Here’s my rundown of what to know about this year’s top gubernatorial races, and what to watch in the final month.
1. Georgia
Candidates: Democratic former mayor of Atlanta Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. businessman Rick Jackson.
RCP Polling average: Jackson +0.7
Ratings: Cook Political Report: Tossup; Inside Elections: Tossup; Center for Politics: Tossup
Democrats' Silver Bulletin odds: 64.3%
What to know: As I’ve written before, Georgia is the single most impactful gubernatorial race this year. A victory by Lance Bottoms would break nearly a quarter-century of unified Republican control of the state and potentially transform its deeply conservative policies. It would also make her the first Black person elected as governor in the Deep South, elevate her as the country’s first Black female governor, and open the door to a presidential campaign by Sen. Jon Ossoff. So far, Jackson, a billionaire who defeated Trump’s endorsed candidate in the Republican primary, has massively outspent her in advertising and outpaced her campaign events, which is a continual source of hand-wringing among people I’ve spoken to in the state and outside. Over the past week or so, though, I’ve begun to hear more reports that her campaign has stepped up its pace.
2. Alaska
Candidates: Democratic former state representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins vs. Bernadette Wilson, a Republican activist, Dave Bronson, the former mayor of Anchorage, and Treg Taylor, the former state Attorney General.
RCP Polling average: Tompkins +3*
Ratings: Cook Political Report: Tossup; Inside Elections: Tossup; Center for Politics: Tossup
Democrats' Silver Bulletin odds: 86.1%
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