Nearly every potential 2028er has something on the line this November.
Pete Buttigieg, who has held more campaign events in red territory than any other prospective candidate, has a lot riding on Democrats’ ability to break through in Trump country. Both Elissa Slotkin and AOC are spending significant political capital to bring Abdul El-Sayed over the finish line in Michigan’s Senate race. Josh Shapiro’s possible candidacy still depends heavily on his ability to deliver a Democratic majority in the state legislature.
Quietly, though, November’s elections have become a crucial test for Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s ambitions — and he’s begun to use them to maximum effect.
The landscape shift
This, more than any other factor, has the potential to elevate Beshear: the steady erosion of the political landscape for Republicans. We are sufficiently far enough into October that the basic contours of the Fall campaign are locked in, with the political battleground now tilted decidedly into red territory.
The Center for Politics at UVA, for example, already projects a net gain of one governorship for Democrats, with three toss-up races.
Source: Sabato Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at UVA
The evolution of the landscape is, of course, largely attributable to Donald Trump’s approval rating, which is bouncing around its lowest position ever (Fox News’ polling outfit, which is one of the best out there, placed it 28 points underwater this week, at 36-64). But it also speaks to the evolving nature of midterms under the parties’ modern coalitions, with Democrats, rather than Republicans, now more likely to vote in off-year elections. If November does indeed end up as a blue wave, this might be the simplest explanation: the 2026 cycle is the first time in modern history that Democrats have been the out-of-power party and had a clear advantage in turnout rates.
That’s provided both a golden opportunity and challenge for Beshear and the Democratic Governors Association he chairs. On the one hand, the Kentucky governor has a real opening to prove the kind of political chops many have long doubted he has. Beshear narrowly beat an unpopular Republican in 2019 and, though he won re-election by a larger margin in 2023, few operatives consider him a political dynamo. That his initial victory came only four years after his father left the governorship only adds to the sense of good fortune. A positive 2026 cycle would be a proof point for both Beshear and Beshear-ism, a valuable argument that his brand of politics can succeed in swing and red-leaning states.
On the other hand, Beshear may be a victim of good fortune. As the map has expanded, more ostensible opportunities have arisen than the DGA has the resources to fund. That dynamic recently spilled into the open, as operatives associated with Latino political groups slammed the organization for not devoting more funding to the campaign of Gina Hinojosa, the party’s nominee in Texas. That produced more than a little eye-rolling behind the scenes from folks I talked to — Democratic Latino groups saw their stock drop precipitously after the 2024 election — and even a razor-thin defeat for Hinojosa is unlikely to matter much for actual voters in fifteen months.
Still, spoke to the genuine risks at play for Beshear: he’s become a more ubiquitous campaign presence, with a higher-profile job, than any other 2028 contender. As such, a Democratic underperformance in November — the perennial nightmare scenario for liberals — could boomerang more for him than others.
There’s another way he may become a victim of November’s success. If Democrats do indeed have a breakthrough night, notching victories in states like Ohio, Kansas, Texas, and Alaska, Beshear’s carefully curated status as the nation’s premier red state Democrat may be in jeopardy.
Beshear’s schedule
Another of his risks: balancing his immediate job with his future ambitions. Even as he travels the country campaigning for Democratic candidates, Beshear has drawn criticism for devoting time to his recent memoir, “Go and Do Likewise: How We Heal a Broken Country.” One stop in Georgia, home to a crucial gubernatorial contest, especially raised eyebrows: he held a book event moderated by none other than Democrats’ nominee for governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms.
A look at Beshear’s schedule in recent weeks leaves little ambiguity. Over the past month, his book tour has taken him to three of the six states that make up the 2028 Democratic primary’s first contests, plus the media market of a fourth. In a fifth, the Nevada Independent finds that he’s held more events than almost any other prospective candidate. One person well-connected in Democratic gubernatorial elections hinted Beshear is likely to make more campaign stops in southern, red states before Election Day.
Beshear’s book tour schedule, as provided by his office.
No other potential 2028er currently in office has spread out across the country more in recent weeks. Now, with his profile rising and the pool of opportunities expanding, Beshear has positioned himself to benefit if Democrats overperform. He’s also made it harder to escape the blame if they don’t.
Worthy reads
Politico’s Kimberly Leonard contrasts the approaches of Democrats’ Senate and gubernatorial nominees in Florida, whose divergent paths are likely being watched by 2028ers.
The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty wonders aloud if Democrats need a more robust agenda ahead of November (a lament that comes several months late).
Juliana Menasce Horowitz at the Pew Research Center has an overview of some galling new numbers about Americans’ economic situation.
Vox’s Christian Paz writes about the potential re-emergence of the religious left.
In the American Conservative, Peter Van Buren travels through what he calls “Vance country,” providing a worthy check-in with a swath of voters whose decision to vote or stay home could be crucial to the midterms’ outcome.
Wake Up to Politics’ Gabe Fleischmann argues there’s one element that could contribute to the 2026 results: voter frustration with one-party control.
And VoteBeat’s Nathaniel Rakich explains why election experts are more optimistic about the security of the midterms now than in the spring.
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