Gas prices hit a nationwide average of $4 a gallon this week, their highest point since August 2022 and a more than 30% increase in the past month.
Data sourced from the Energy Information Administration
The sharp uptick has reintroduced energy as a prime voting issue this year — underscoring even more sharply state Democrats’ shift away from hard-line climate change positioning.
Hochul makes her move
This week, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced she would seek to revamp the Empire State’s landmark 2019 climate law, one of the most aggressive moves yet by a Democratic governor to weaken a state-level emissions goal. The announcement was not a surprise — the governor had been telegraphing the decision for months — but it was no less notable. If Hochul is successful in the coming negotiations with the state legislature, she will be dismantling a legacy achievement of her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, and, from the third-largest economy in the country, sending a message to other blue states.
The move drew immediate condemnation from environmental groups. “I think she's lost all credibility on the issue,” Roger Downs, the Sierra Club Atlantic Chapter Conservation Director, told me. “Governor Hochul is approaching the state's climate goals the way Trump wins his own golf tournaments — by fudging numbers and changing rules mid-course.”
Most disappointing for climate activists may be that Hochul’s decision is not unique. In recent months, we have seen a quiet shift at play in Democratic-led states. To name a few:
MA Gov. Maura Healey endorsed the expansion of a major gas transmission pipeline last fall. This winter, she signed an executive order delaying implementation of the state’s stringent Clean Heat Standard until at least 2028.
MD Gov. Wes Moore signed an executive order delaying enforcement of the state’s electric vehicle mandate last summer. This winter, he proposed cutting $700 million from the state’s clean energy fund to plug budget holes.
PA Gov. Josh Shapiro signed legislation in the Fall withdrawing from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the first Democratic-led state to exit the pact, and ended the Keystone State’s cap-and-trade program (N.B.: both were part of a budget compromise with state Republicans).
RI Gov. Dan McKee, in his annual budget, proposed a significant rollback of the state’s Renewable Energy Standard, delaying key goals from 2033 to 2050. The plan remains up in the air, but EcoRI reported this week there’s “growing” momentum behind it in the legislature.
To be sure, the change is not universal, nor does it encompass every climate change effort. Gov. Jared Polis, for instance, has argued for accelerating Colorado’s transition to zero emissions (though the plan has stalled in the legislature). Gov. Abigail Spanberger re-entered Virginia into the RGGI. And NC Gov. Josh Stein has repeatedly vetoed Republican efforts to weaken emissions standards.
Still, the larger movement away from maximalist climate positioning is clear, and it’s a major contrast to Trump’s first term. Back then, ambitious Democrats clearly saw a political upside to climate hawk positioning: In D.C., senators lined up to sign on to the Green New Deal, and Democratic governors seemed to be trying to outdo each other, with states like Virginia, Washington, New York, and California enacting landmark emissions reduction packages. Those efforts helped set the stage for a 2020 Democratic primary in which an aggressive climate plan was essentially the price of entry for any major candidate. Now, with the politics of affordability dominating, the landscape is significantly different — and after the war in Iran, that’s not changing anytime soon.
Two more things
On the politics, the weakened standing of climate-aligned groups sticks out. Two people I spoke to, including one working in the New York legislature, privately expressed confidence that Hochul’s plan will pass over the objections of groups like Sierra. This comes after climate groups furiously opposed Newsom’s effort to streamline California’s environmental review process last year — and lost big time.
There’s a case to be made that the organizations’ weakened standing is partly due to their own choices. Semafor’s Dave Weigel laid out yesterday how some have become “everything bagel liberalism” groups, weighing in on issues like Palestinian rights more than climate change itself. During Trump’s first term, the League of Conservation Voters, for example, mystifyingly began to include issues like LGBTQ rights in its ratings (LCV recently began to return to a narrower focus in its candidate questionnaires).
On the policy, there seems to be a deeper question at play: With the Trump administration effectively halting American climate policy altogether, what exactly is the upside to measures that have little effect on U.S. emissions overall but bear political cost for Democrats? It’s a question even some advocates don’t quite have a response to. I asked one person in climate advocacy how much states can actually do for the environment under the current federal government. Their response: “It's an excellent question. I don't know the answer.”
Newsom’s Israel dance
Gavin Newsom appeared on Politico’s “On the Road” series this week, gabbing with Jonathan Martin in San Francisco. The episode was full of some interesting stuff — including discussion of recent presidents’ “daddy issues” and some pushback against the “hurtful” criticism of trans rights advocates, whose ire Newsom drew when he changed his position on trans sports participation last year.
One part drew the most attention online: Newsom semi-walked back his recent use of “apartheid” to describe the state of Israel, another chapter in his ongoing, complex navigation of the issue.
Gov races move left
The University of Virginia’s Sabato Crystal Ball, one of the country’s best forecasters, moved six gubernatorial elections towards Democrats this past week — most notably, swing state races in Arizona, where Democrats are defending Gov. Katie Hobbs, and Georgia, where they’re seeking to win the governor’s mansion after a decades-long lockout.
Recall that Democrats’ unofficial goal is to win a majority of governorships this year, requiring a net pick up of two governor’s mansions — there’s still a way to go for that to come true.
Got feedback on today’s newsletter? Email me [email protected]