The stakes of the 2026 congressional elections are existential. Failing to win back at least the House of Representatives would be catastrophic for the Democratic Party, and any hope at winning the Senate majority in 2028 rests on also picking up several seats in that chamber this year.
When it comes to actual policy, however, Democrats’ most important battles are almost entirely at the state level. As I wrote last week, the gulf between Republican and Democratic-controlled states is deepening year by year. And this cycle features both an unusually high number of open governorships — 18 incumbents are retiring, the most since 2010 — and an unusually high number of state legislatures up for grabs.
The combination means that more states are facing the prospect of one party grabbing full control of their state government than anytime in recent history — and with it, the ability to change the basic fabric of life. Here’s a rundown of the five states that score highest on this 3D X-Y axis of competitiveness, policy impact, and political implications.
5. Nevada
Current power breakdown: Republican governor, Democratic state Senate (13-8), Democratic state Assembly (27-15).
Candidates: Incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, likely challenged by Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Some of the stakes: A potential repeal of the state’s right-to-work law, a higher minimum wage, and joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
Forecasters’ ratings: Crystal Ball: lean Republican; Inside Elections: tilt Republican; Cook Political Report: tossup.
For a number of reasons, Nevada is in a unique position. In 2022, it was the only state in the country in which an incumbent governor lost a re-election bid — largely due to the backlash to COVID restrictions, which hit the tourism-dependent state worse than any other. Its legislature also has the distinction of being one of the most effective Democratic gerrymanders in the country; in 2024, even as Republicans won the popular vote in state legislative races, Democrats retained comfortable majorities in the state Senate and Assembly (that dynamic is more common the other way around). That gerrymander likely ensures Democratic control of the state legislature no matter what this year, lessening some of the stakes for the gubernatorial election.
Still, the race has real implications. In less than one term in office, Lombardo has set the record for the most number of vetoes by a Nevada governor, killing Democratic bills on issues like gun restrictions and paid leave expansion. Democrats have united around Attorney General Aaron Ford, whose victory would give Democrats’ full control of the state, which they last enjoyed from 2019 to 2023. The Attorney General, who has pledged to be “the most pro-labor governor this state has ever seen,” could push the state to raise its $12 minimum wage and repeal its right-to-work law, which only one other state has done in the past 40 years. The last Democratic governor also vetoed a bill that would have entered the state into the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an attempt to work around the electoral college that has gained momentum in recent years. A Ford victory would likely revive the effort.
If victorious, Ford would be only the fourth Black person elected to a governorship and, with Maryland Gov. Wes Moore virtually guaranteed re-election, the country would see two Black governors elected simultaneously for the first time ever.
4. Michigan
Current power breakdown: Democratic governor, Democratic state Senate (19-18), Republican state House (58-52).
Candidates: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James are likely to be their parties’ nominees. Former Democratic mayor of Detroit Mike Duggan is running as an independent.
Some of the stakes: AI data center regulation, universal childcare, Gretchen Whitmer’s legacy and higher office ambitions.
Forecasters’ ratings: Crystal Ball: tossup; Inside Elections: tossup; Cook Political Report: tossup.
The parties have traded the Michigan governorship back and forth for the past six decades, with no one winning an election to succeed a member of their own party since 1960. Those odds weigh against Benson, especially with the presence on the ballot of former Democrat Duggan, who is polling unusually high for an independent. Working in her favor: Whitmer is entering her final year in office more popular than ever.
Benson has made education and childcare centerpieces of her campaign, proposing to make childcare free for all residents. That would be a significant step: as I’ve written before, New Mexico became the first state to enact such a program in November, but it’s about a fifth the size of Michigan. AI regulation, too, could be a point of distinction; construction of the centers is soaring across Great Lakes states, and Michigan has seen some of the most persistent local protests. James has generally been pro-AI, while Benson recently made a point to say she would challenge data centers’ use of the state’s water and electricity (though that was likely motivated in part by the revelation that her husband worked on one data center project).
Meanwhile, Whitmer has a bit of her legacy on the line. She delivered her party its first trifecta in the state in 40 years before they lost it in the 2024 cycle. Whether she chooses to run for president or not, being able to hand the state off to Democrats would be a career-crowning political achievement.
3. Arizona
Current power breakdown: Democratic governor, Republican state Senate (17-13), Republican state House (33-27).
Candidates: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs will face the winner of a Republican primary that includes Rep. David Schweikert, businesswoman Karin Taylor Robson, and Rep. Andy Biggs, the last of whom is far and away the frontrunner.
Some of the stakes: 2028 election rules, water and AI regulation, gun regulation.
Forecasters’ ratings: Crystal Ball: tossup; Inside Elections: tossup; Cook Political Report: tossup.
This year, Katie Hobbs could do what no Arizona governor has done in 60 years: lose re-election. Since she was first elected in 2022, defeating far-right former television reporter Kari Lake, Hobbs’s governorship has largely been defined by her fights with the Republican-controlled legislature. Hobbs has repeatedly broken the record for the most vetoes in state history, embracing the moniker of ‘Veto Queen.’ In 2026, however, she has the chance for something different: full control. Democrats have not had a trifecta — control of the governorship, the state Senate, and the state House — in sixty years.
Unlike some other states with a long history of Republican control, there’s less deck-clearing to be done in Arizona: several major Democratic priorities, including abortion legalization and a $15 minimum wage, have already passed via voter referendum. But a re-elected Hobbs, armed with a Democratic legislature, would nonetheless be a significant shift of gravity. Gun regulations, especially, could be a point of movement: Arizona is one of the most gun-friendly states in the country, allowing them to be carried into bars and school grounds.
On the other hand, there’s just as much of a chance of Republicans regaining full control of state government. If that were to happen, the implications would likely be felt immediately in the 2028 election. In 2020, then-Republican Gov. Doug Ducey rejected Trump’s claims of election fraud and (though belatedly) acknowledged Biden’s victory, a significant move. Republicans’ likely nominee, Rep. Andy Biggs, would be far different: a far-right election denier who was intimately involved in efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
2. Wisconsin
Current power breakdown: Democratic governor, Republican state Senate (18-15), Republican state Assembly (54-44).
Candidates: Republicans’ frontrunner is Rep. Tom Tiffany, who will likely face either former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes or current Lt. Gov Sara Rodriguez.
Some of the stakes: Medicaid expansion, education, minimum wage.
Forecasters’ ratings: Crystal Ball: tossup; Inside Elections: tossup; Cook Political Report: tossup.
2026 could be a turning point for Wisconsin, with its governorship and state legislature all truly up for grabs for the first time in a decade and a half. In 2024, the state Supreme Court, governed by a new liberal majority, struck down the state’s notoriously gerrymandered state legislative maps. The effect was immediate: in 2024, Democrats came closer to majorities in the state legislature than at any time since the gerrymander was first passed.
Coupled with an open race for governor, control of the entire state is now up for grabs — and with it, long-stalled Democratic priorities on issues like worker protections and healthcare (Wisconsin is the bluest state not to have expanded Medicaid). A Democrat able to win the governor’s mansion and bring across majorities in the legislature could soon find themselves the focus of national attention, especially given the profiles of the leading Democratic candidates.
Rodriguez would be the state’s first female and first Latino governor, and Barnes would be its first Black governor. Politically, a victory by either in the country’s consummate swing state — which provided Trump his narrowest margin of victory in 2024 — could be impactful as Democrats evaluate questions of race, gender, and electability in the 2028 presidential primary contest.
1. Georgia
Current power breakdown: Republican governor, Republican state Senate (33-23), Republican state House (99-81).
Candidates: Republicans are likely to nominate Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Democrats have a crowded primary, including former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former county executive Michael Thurmond, former state senator Jason Esteves, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, and state Reps. Ruwa Romman and Derrick Jackson.
Some of the stakes: Medicaid expansion, abortion legality, minimum wage, 2028 Democratic ticket possibilities.
Forecasters’ ratings: Crystal Ball: lean Republican; Inside Elections: tilt Republican; Cook Political Report: tossup.
Maybe no state’s gubernatorial election has higher stakes this year than Georgia.
The opportunity for Democrats is there: relative to the country, the state has moved leftward in every presidential election since 2008. Additionally, Republicans seem set to nominate Lt. Gov Burt Jones, a Trump-endorsed, hard-right figure significantly more conservative and combative than outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp, who was able to perform reasonably well in suburban areas.
Georgia also has the longest-running Republican trifecta of any state on this list — the GOP has had full control of state government since 2005. That’s left the state with a far more conservative policy landscape than any other presidential swing state: a near-total abortion ban, deeply conservative tax and economic policy, and no Medicaid expansion. A Democratic governor could represent a paradigm shift in the state and the broader southeast region.
The race has implications for 2028, too. Unlike some states, Georgia has no law requiring a governor to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate with a senator of the same party. Given Democrats’ already tenuous position in the chamber, it’s therefore unlikely that Sens. Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, potential contenders for either president or vice president, would be considered for the ticket if a Republican wins this November.
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