There are few things in politics these days that actually catch the world by surprise.
So when CNN released footage of Gavin Newsom saying he would “of course not” run for president if Kamala Harris chose to, it was a genuine shock to most journalists and operatives. The two have long had a frenemy relationship, but such a definitive statement, from such an obviously ambitious Democrat, left pundits and operatives alike scrambling for explanation.
In public and private, I’ve heard conflicting interpretations of Newsom’s comments — ranging from an early signal that he has more ambivalence than most expect to the clearest indication yet that the former vice president is likely to sit out the contest. For the record, I very much fall in the latter camp and continue to be skeptical that Harris will run. On the other hand, there’s another reason Newsom’s comments stuck out to me. He is among several potential 2028 candidates who have largely avoided engaging in the kinds of early state activity we most associate with would-be primary candidates — beginning with primary endorsements.
The primary scorecard
The 2026 primary season officially ended this week, with Delaware holding the final elections of the year. That means that, after nine months, we finally have a verdict on the potential 2028 Democratic field’s primary endorsement record.
Note: Data collected in part from Vote Hub and Ballotpedia’s endorsement trackers. Data includes only non-incumbent races or races in which incumbents faced genuinely competitive contests.
The data point that most sticks out: When looking at endorsements in non-incumbent races or competitive primaries between incumbents and challengers, the crop of governors issued far fewer endorsements overall than the senators or former officeholders. This was particularly true in the six earliest states; under the new calendar recently approved by the DNC, those will be South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. Josh Shapiro was the only candidate in the field who did not endorse outside of his home state, in keeping with his heavy focus on flipping the Pennsylvania legislature.
Notably, several governors not generally considered to be in the presidential mix did venture into competitive primaries. That includes Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, whose activity could be seen as validation of the rumors I’ve heard that one of the two could end up in the vice-presidential slot come 2028. In fact, Sherrill issues more endorsements outside her home state than those considered sure bets to enter the presidential primary.
To be sure, certain candidates are absolutely flexing their political muscle. JB Pritzker, for one, recently launched a $20 million effort backing Democratic candidates across the country. One source involved in Illinois politics, speaking anonymously, told me they “expect more [money] will come” from the effort, especially as Republicans unleash super PAC spending across the map. Both Pritzker and Newsom notably waded into the competitive House primary in New Hampshire’s 2nd congressional district, where they backed the eventual victor, Stefany Shaheen.
Generally, though, the story of the 2026 primary battles was one in which federal officeholders far exceeded those in governors’ mansions. The relatively paltry endorsement activity by governors stands in contrast not only to their D.C. colleagues but to past frontrunners; my review of Ballotpedia data found that both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden backed more primary candidates in the 2014 and 2018 midterm cycles, respectively.
The road ahead
That broader picture is notable, particularly in early states. To some degree, it points to the declining power of endorsements writ large. In an ever-more nationalized environment, the once-vaunted endorsement power of early state officials — like congressmembers who might owe an early backer a favor — now has less power than, say, an impactful podcast appearance. We’ve already seen examples of that in recent cycles: Marco Rubio and Elizabeth Warren’s New Hampshire campaigns were both brought down in large part due to debate performances directly prior to voting.
I spoke with several Democratic operatives with conflicting interpretations of the endorsement battle. Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist with experience in competitive campaigns, saw the governors walking a tightrope. "I think they’re lesser known,” she told me, “so they don’t want their first impression with new audiences to be bad.”
Another, a veteran of the Biden-Harris 2024 effort, pointed to the different incentives for governors and non-governors. “The [senators and congressmembers] are already in it, in the federal stuff,” they told me, arguing it makes sense for federal officeholders to weigh in — while acknowledging they themselves were puzzled by the dichotomy. “So if I were in [a governor’s shoes] I’d want to be more involved.”
“Endorsements still carry weight when done right, but there’s definitely a clear pattern that they’re doing less now,” said one operative with experience in early state campaigns, who also attributed the landscape to the party’s ideological battle. “I think it reflects a little bit of a skittishness to jump into intra-party feuds when the party is going through such a significant change.”
Whatever the explanation, the cycle’s primaries became one more data point underscoring the different challenges facing the would-be contenders inside and outside D.C. Moving forward, an even bigger tell may be which candidates do and do not show up on the campaign trail in competitive races — stay tuned.
Worthy reads
The American Prospect’s David Dayen writes on the emergence of a new class of economically populist Democratic candidates, many of whom are defying the traditional “moderate vs. progressive” division.
The New Republic’s Perry Bacon dives into the candidacies of gubernatorial nominees Keisha Lance Bottoms and David Crowley, whose victories would pave a new path for swing-state Democrats.
In Semafor, David Weigel reports on Democrats’ rapid movement against AI and the tech industry.
A Washington Post analysis by Clara Ence Morse, Gregory S. Schneider and Theodoric Meyer finds that both Republican and Democratic candidates are talking about Trump less.
In the New York Times, a collection of pollsters and analysts were increasingly bullish on Democrats’ chances in November — most notably Nate Silver, who now predicts a Democratic-controlled Senate.
And PoliticsPA’s Todd Shepard examines the nuances of Josh Shapiro’s recent executive order cracking down on data centers, which points to some of the problems facing Democratic governors on the issue.
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