Pritzker’s Big Bet
With Tuesday’s Texas primaries now (mostly) behind us, Illinois is the next big battle on the calendar. At stake in those results: the capital, both political and financial, of Gov. JB Pritzker.
With competitive Democratic primaries up and down the ballot, Illinois has become the site of some of the country’s most chaotic and expensive primaries. Voters there, who head to the polls on March 17th, have been inundated with tens of millions of dollars of ads. All of the usual moneyed interests looking to leave their mark have been present, from both sides of the Israel debate to cryptocurrency groups and AI companies. Unlike in other states, there’s another major figure pouring in millions: the governor himself.
Pritzker has likely poured millions of his own fortune into the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, almost singlehandedly financing the super PAC supporting his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton. (Some context: as of the last FEC filings, Pritzker had donated over $5 million. The group’s spending has since risen to over $11 million, but its more recent donors will not be disclosed until after the primary). Stratton is locked in a three-way primary race, alongside Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, for the seat held by the retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Given the state’s blue lean, the primary is akin to a coronation — and all sides are treating it as such.
Kelly, Krishnamoorthi, and Stratton in a January debate (WGN9 News)
Krishnamoorthi began with a wide financial advantage, having stockpiled over $20 million before ever entering the race, and had the airwaves to himself for months, building an early polling lead. The spending by Pritzker and his family (the little in the PAC that did not come from the governor himself came from his cousin) is largely responsible for keeping Stratton’s campaign viable: the group, Illinois Future PAC, has spent more than twice what Stratton’s entire campaign raised last year, according to the latest FEC filings. It’s an extremely unusual situation. “I can't think of an example of that happening like that before,” Brendan Glavin, the Director of Insights at OpenSecrets, told me. “But normally, office holders don't have access to that kind of money to just spend on their own.”
Pritzker, an heir to a family mega-fortune, is the only billionaire currently serving as a U.S. governor, and broke spending records in his 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial campaigns (he is running for a third term this year). Some observers look at his intervention in the Senate primary as a dry run for the financial firepower he could bring to a 2028 presidential campaign; one 2020 campaign veteran called it a “warning” for other would-be candidates. The spending does carry some risks. In addition to potential criticisms that he is buying a seat for an ally, Pritzker’s efforts have drawn the ire of the Congressional Black Caucus, which has endorsed Kelly. Earlier this week, the caucus’s chair condemned Pritzker for “heavy-handing the race” and trying to “tip the scales” (both Stratton and Kelly are Black, while Krishnamoorthi is Indian American).
In the past, the governor has leaned into his wealth as part of his political brand — at the 2024 DNC, for example, he drew cheers when he bragged of being an “actual billionaire” — often framing his personal spending as a force for liberal good. When it comes to his spending for Stratton, he has some claim to be using his money to cancel out other wealthy interests: Stratton has recently become the recipient of $6 million in negative ads from the crypto industry. That industry, flush with cash, is among several that are getting increasingly aggressive in Democratic primaries. Michael Becker, the Director of Money in Politics Reform at Issue One, called the AI and crypto spending “really unprecedented.”
The jumble of spending makes it more difficult to parse individual players’ impacts. But, ahead of an almost certain 2028 bid, Pritzker clearly has a lot on the line come primary day. “To have a politician use their own personal wealth in this way is really a rarity,” Becker told me. “And it speaks volumes to the degree to which he's willing to invest in a potential ally succeeding in this race.”
The war in Iran: Subtle differences emerge
America’s newest foray into war in the Middle East is taking up a bigger and bigger share of D.C.’s attention. Under old political rules, this would elevate many congressional Democrats to the detriment of state figures. As I’ve mentioned here before, though, governors are more and more willing (and able) to insert themselves into foreign policy stories. Several have weighed in on the war, and their statements revealed some subtle differences in style and policy.
Gavin Newsom condemned it as “an illegal, dangerous war that will risk the lives of our American service members.” Notably, Newsom also said that the “corrupt and repressive Iranian regime…must go.” Some likely context: California has by far the largest Iranian-American population in the country, with roughly half of the entire American diaspora.
JB Pritzker accused Trump of “sidestepping the Constitution” and offering “no justification, no authorization from Congress, and no clear objective” for “another potentially endless conflict.”
Tim Walz simply called for “no new wars.”
and Andy Beshear focused more on the process, arguing the president has “played political games” and “owes Congress and the American people a full explanation.”
Speaking of the Middle East…
Gavin Newsom made some notably Israel-critical comments at a book event on Tuesday, telling the Pod Save America boys that it was “appropriate” to label the country “sort of an apartheid state.”
The statement came a week after a Gallup poll showed that, for the first time, a plurality of Americans and independent voters sympathize with Palestinians over Israelis. Democratic voters, who sided with Israelis over Palestinians 40-38 in 2022, now sympathize more with Palestinians by a 65-17 margin.
Keep an eye on: Gas prices
Spurred by the war, gas prices are rising rapidly nationwide. They’re likely to hit the highest level of Trump’s presidency in the coming days.
Source: YCharts, AAA
California, per usual, leads the nation, but swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are all above the national average. As we’ve seen before, high fuel prices can be politically perilous — Joe Biden’s lowest approval ratings during his presidency came in June 2022, the exact month gas hit an all-time high.
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