Gretchen Whitmer bet on Trump. It might be working.

What is Gretchen Whitmer doing?
In the eyes of some Democrats, no figure in the party seemed to misread the moment this spring more than Gretchen Whitmer.

As liberals seethed over Trump’s return, the Michigan governor gave speeches declaring her intent to “find common ground” with the president-elect and striking a nuanced tone on tariffs. The intentional effort to signal collaboration careened into a PR disaster in April, when Whitmer ended up retreating in the Oval Office, using folders to hide from the cameras. The move was widely mocked, seemingly proof of the futility of her reconciliatory posture towards Trump. As a testament to the perils of Whitmer’s approach, Politico this week ran a piece labeling Whitmer “Trump’s favorite Democrat,” hardly a badge of honor for any potential 2028 candidate.

But the fruits of her approach were seen on Tuesday, when the Department of Energy announced $400 million in funding to build new reactors at the Palisades Nuclear Plant, located in western Michigan. The plant shut down in 2022 and, after multiple bouts of federal investment, is now the first decommissioned nuclear plant in U.S. history to be reopened.

The announcement has national implications for the nuclear power industry, which, after decades of decline, is now experiencing a bit of a resurgence, and it could be a significant boon for Michigan. In addition to the hundreds of jobs supported by federal investment, the new reactors will nearly double the energy production at the plant, delivering power to 1.4 million households, per Holtec Government, the company overseeing the plant. 

Politically, it’s also a key validator for Whitmer. Efforts to restart the plant first began under the Biden administration, via funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, but could well have been quashed by Trump. An aide to Whitmer contrasted her approach to the administration with that of governors from other states, who may “always need to be on offense or always need to be on defense.” But even some leaders from deep blue enclaves may be coming around to her point of view: It’s hard not to see Zohran Mamdani’s recent charm offensive as sharing some DNA with Whitmer’s strategy. 

The aide would not take an explicit victory lap, but it was hard to escape a sense of being proven right. “We just feel like we got the job done because that’s what Michiganders want,” they said. 

Badger Battle
Wisconsin has been a bright spot for Democrats in recent years. Next year is shaping up to be a big test.

Former Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes officially jumped into the Democratic primary for governor on Tuesday, becoming the immediate frontrunner in a crowded field. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is retiring, leaving an open race that will likely be one of the country’s most competitive elections next year. Barnes’ entry is one of the last dominoes to fall — and it could have a big impact on the state’s whole political trajectory.

Barnes was Democrats’ nominee for Senate in 2022, outperforming expectations and losing by just 1%. That defeat was the result of a lot of factors, including Barnes’ own baggage: he once brandished an “abolish ICE” t-shirt and advocated for cutting police funding, both of which featured heavily in GOP attack ads. The loss created some ill will for Barnes in the party — some Democrats were hoping he’d sit out this year’s race. At the same time, the 2022 outcome had as much to do with disordered incentives among grassroots Democratic donors, who funneled tens of millions of dollars to candidates with far less of a chance that year; Reps. Tim Ryan and Val Demings, running in ruby red Ohio and Florida, collected more than $130M in donations in 2022 while Barnes was outspent by super PACs in the nation’s premier swing state.

The 2026 Barnes campaign seems aware of some Democrats’ hesitance. One operative working with his campaign says he’s learned the lessons of his 2022 loss, predicting he will have a “stronger campaign” this time around after having been vetted in his previous run. 

Most interesting about Barnes’ candidacy, though, is that he is not Evers’ only #2 in the race. Current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who succeeded Barnes in 2023, is also running. Polls show the two as the frontrunners, though with Barnes comfortably ahead. It sets up an awkward dynamic going into Evers’ final year as governor, with his current and former apprentice now poised to battle it out until the August 2026 primary.  

A big question for me: Will Rodriguez, who would be the state’s first female governor, be able to count on potentially potent support from EMILY’s List? One person familiar with the organization’s thinking expressed doubt that the deep-pocketed women’s group would get involved in the primary, at least for a while. Two other female candidates, state Rep. Francesca Hong and state Sen. Kelda Roys, are also running. Roys has been endorsed by the group before, including during her 2018 gubernatorial run.

For his part, Evers has a political legacy on the line. Policy-wise, he has struggled to enact his agenda as governor. For example, though he has included Medicaid expansion in every one of his budgets as governor, Wisconsin remains one of only 10 states that have not yet adopted the expansion — and is by far the bluest of the holdouts. Facing a Republican-controlled legislature for the entirety of his governorship, he’s been in a constant war of attrition, with his primary victories coming from vetoes. That’s left Wisconsin in a far different place from neighboring states like Minnesota and Michigan, which have passed a raft of liberal legislation in recent years, including free school lunches, abortion protections, and minimum wage increases.

Instead, the legacy of Evers’ governorship has as much to do with breaking the stranglehold Republicans had over state politics before 2018. The night he was first elected, Republicans held four out of five statewide constitutional offices and a supermajority in the state House, and conservatives held a majority on the state Supreme Court. Seven years later, Democrats hold all five constitutional offices, the state Supreme Court is now controlled by liberal-aligned justices, and Republicans’ state Assembly majority has narrowed from a 27 seat-margin to just nine. 

Those last two developments are closely intertwined: Wisconsin’s state legislative districts were once some of the most gerrymandered in the country. In 2018, for example, Republicans won 63/99 seats, even as Democrats won a seven-point popular vote majority.

After liberals won control of the state Supreme Court, the new majority ordered a redrawing of the maps, the effects of which were felt immediately in 2024. 

The new maps heighten the stakes for both parties: This cycle will be the first in nearly twenty years in which the governorship, state Assembly, and state Senate are all conceivably up for grabs. “With 2026 being the first real chance for Democrats to win a trifecta, I think that just makes it all the more compelling who's going to be at the top of the ticket,” Dan Shafer, who writes the Recobobulation Area newsletter about Wisconsin politics, told me.

Any eventual Democratic nominee is facing a historical headwind: Wisconsin hasn’t elected a new governor to succeed an incumbent of the same party since the 1960s. But a Democrat winning in 2026 would cement Evers’ legacy as the figure overseeing Wisconsin Democrats’ revival. And, given the state’s newly unskewed maps, the next governor could soon see Democrats back in the majority in the state house, able to finally do much of what Evers was unable to.