Ok, not really — but kind of.
Newsom’s ad blitz
The Los Angeles Times reported this week that the administration of Gavin Newsom will spend around $20 million this year on a nationwide ad campaign promoting California’s image. The campaign will be managed by the governor’s own office and, in one spokesperson’s words, is aimed at telling “the true story” of the state’s economy and quality of life.
The campaign is obviously impossible to disconnect from Newsom’s presidential ambitions — I’ve written before that California’s national reputation is his biggest impediment to success in 2028. But it’s worth noting that this approach is not exactly a new phenomenon. In the past, other ambitious governors have elevated their profiles with ad campaigns outside their states, drawing scrutiny along the way.
That includes Chris Christie, who was prominently featured in New Jersey’s 2013 “Stronger than the Storm” campaign to promote tourism after Hurricane Sandy, bringing his face to states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. More recently, Glenn Youngkin made a starring appearance in a tourism ad that happened to be produced by the GOP ad agency he used in his own gubernatorial campaign. Though he did not appear in them, Andrew Cuomo also oversaw tens of millions of ads touting New York’s business and startup climate in the 2010s.
Christie and Youngkin’s ads.
So the concept is nothing new. The relatively small total ($19 million for a nationwide campaign won’t exactly blanket the airwaves) indicates to me that any controversy is probably a welcome amplification of the ads’ reach, an assessment one ad veteran I spoke to concurred with. The larger concern for Newsom might be that his own constituents are not themselves sold on the message he’s giving the rest of the country.
Californians have, in recent years, consistently felt their state is moving in the wrong direction. The results from the Public Policy Institute of California, one of the state’s best pollsters show the trend over the past ten years. Residents’ views have rebounded from their 2024 low, but remain stubbornly negative.
Public Policy Institute of California polling results 2016-2026.
That reality is reflected in the race to succeed Newsom, with the leading candidates united in finding deep problems of inequality, crime, disorder, or fiscal mismanagement in the state. The ads might help his case elsewhere — but there’s a ways to go at home.
Sherrill offers a path
NJ Gov. Mikie Sherrill delivered her first budget address on Tuesday, presenting her fiscal blueprint to the state’s legislature. The backdrop for the speech was somewhat grim: The state faces one of the more dire fiscal pictures in the country, with a large deficit and a host of long-term problems. Though budget proposals can be sleepy affairs, this address functioned as a pseudo-State of the State (that was technically given by outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy in January, days before he left office) with the topics extending beyond typical fiscal matters. And, much to my surprise, it was extremely interesting.
With a national audience seemingly on her mind, Sherrill delivered a speech that effectively blended the rhetoric and ideas of her party’s moderate and populist wings in a way I’ve seen few Democratic figures do. The governor simultaneously defended the role of a muscular government — saying she knows “what well-run government can do” — while steering lawmakers towards “the most fiscally responsible budget that this state has seen in years.”
Sherrill channeled populist rage towards Big Tech, accusing executives of profiting from children’s suffering, labeling the industry “worse” than Big Tobacco, and calling for regulations of dynamic pricing and algorithmic rent-pricing. At the same time, she cast her administration in a decidedly pro-business light, bragging of “cutting red tape” and saying she knows “how hard it is to do business” in the state.
There were provisions to thrill the Abundance camps — “We have to increase [housing] supply,” “Permitting is too slow” — as well as some that would be right at home in a Bernie Sanders speech, including proposals to “end veteran homelessness” and fine employers, “like Amazon and Walmart,” with 50 or more employees on Medicaid if they choose not to insure workers.
Overall, there was a synthesis of some of the party’s smartest voices — part “angry centrism,” part steady management, part populist progressivism.
Back home in Jersey, the budget battle will be a key test for the new governor’s mettle and political sway. Already, some of the ideas she ran on in 2025, like property tax relief and an expanded child tax credit, fell by the wayside in the face of fiscal reality (a possibility we noted last Fall). But outside the state, the speech could offer an early preview of the kind of message that could resonate in 2028.
One final thing
18 governors signed a letter to Congress calling for leaders to reject any attempt to resurrect Trump’s tariff agenda.
On the list: Potential 2028ers Gretchen Whitmer, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear, and 2026er Janet Mills.
Off the list: Potential 2028ers Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, and Abigail Spanberger.
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