This is The Long Run. The fight for the future of the Democratic Party is the most important and interesting story in politics right now — and the nation’s Democratic governors are central to that story.
The Long Run is the only outlet covering all angles of that story, from state policy decisions to 2026 campaigns to 2028 moves. This is the Friday edition, when I give you a rundown of what caught my eye this week.
The third term growth spurt
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont officially announced his reelection bid this past week, confirming months of speculation. The announcement punctuates an interesting subplot of the 2026 election cycle: An unusual number of governors are seeking third terms in office — so far, all on the Democratic side. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker are also attempting re-election for a second time.
Steve Morris, The Long Run.
thelongrun.news
The number may still grow: Two-term Idaho Gov. Brad Little is eligible to run again and has even picked up a preemptive Trump endorsement, but has not yet announced his intentions. Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term — he’d be the first governor elected to a fourth consecutive term since Tommy Thompson in 1998 (excluding Vermont and New Hampshire, which elect governors to two-year terms).
Even in the thirteen states that allow it, running for a third consecutive term is generally unusual, especially for a Democrat. The cultural norm of two terms, combined with voter fatigue and restlessness after eight years of one leader, have often been enough to nudge even eligible governors towards the exits. So the uptick is noticeable. And it’s difficult to disconnect from broader political currents: As states become more calcified into their party identities, it’s simply safer than ever to carry your party’s banner in most states.
2026 Moves
Two of the country’s most esteemed political forecasters, Cook Political Report and Sabato Crystal Ball, moved several House races towards Democrats, reflecting a congealing conventional wisdom after November’s elections that the political environment is increasingly favoring Democrats.
Tim Ryan will not run for governor of Ohio after all. The former congressman, who was Democrats’ nominee for Senate against J.D. Vance in 2022, had been presumed to be a candidate for months — I had heard talk from several strategists during the summer that his campaign was all but confirmed. There are any number of interpretations, but one is hard to look past: A Democrat winning in Ohio is simply an extremely tall task now. His exit makes a matchup between Amy Acton, the face of the state’s COVID response and restrictions, and Vivek Ramaswamy close to inevitable.
Billionaire, liberal mega-donor, and ill-fated 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer officially entered the California governor’s race. His launch video included a notable promise to “launch the largest drive to build homes” in the history of the Golden State, which has become a national symbol of Democrats’ failure to tame the housing crisis. Rep. Eric Swalwell, also a brief 2020 candidate, was right behind, announcing on Jimmy Kimmel that he was also throwing his hat into the ring. Both have so far been negligible presences in polling. But many Democrats have been looking for an alternative to former Rep. Katie Porter, a frontrunner who fires up many national Democrats but is despised by the California political class, and their entries are an answer to those calls.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly endorsed state Sen. Ethan Corson to be her successor. Kelly’s endorsement is likely to carry weight with Kansas Democrats: She’s entering the final year of her second term with approval ratings around 60%, per the Kansas Institute for Politics. But any Democrat is still likely to face stiff headwinds in a state Trump carried by 16 points last year. Corson faces state Sen. Cindy Holscher in the primary.
Pollodex
Siena College finds New York Gov. Kathy Hochul up 20 points on her general election rival, Rep. Elise Stefanik, and 40 on her primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.
Emerson released polls in two gubernatorial races all sides expect to be some of the most competitive and hard fought next year. It finds Arizona Gov. Katy Hobbs narrowly ahead of her Republican challengers. Rep. Andy Biggs, a hard-right Freedom Caucus member Democrats are eager to run against, leads Karin Taylor Robinson, a more tempered businesswoman preferred by establishment Republicans, by 33 points in the GOP primary. Emerson also has Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo tied with Attorney General Aaron Ford, 41-41. Lombardo won a first term in 2022 by channeling anger over COVID restrictions to knock off the only incumbent governor to lose that year.
A week of brutal polls drove three major aggregates to find Trump’s disapproval rating at the highest point of his second term. See Silver Bulletin, Real Clear Politics, and Fifty Plus One’s averages.
Of most note to me: Before nosediving after January 6th, Trump’s worst approval rating during his first term came in the equivalent November-December period of his first year. But that came before he signed a major tax cut law in December 2017, when many conservatives were sounding the alarm about a lack of legislative achievements. This time, the president got his tax cut legislative win in July, and is still struggling.
Won the Week
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who saw good poll numbers, watched incoming Mayor Zohran Mamdani reappoint her preferred NYPD commissioner, and saw rising signs that the GOP gubernatorial field could feature an expensive primary.
2028 Watch
PA Gov. Josh Shapiro hit congressional Democrats for “getting nothing” in the shutdown deal. Shapiro has been on a bit of a victory tour after finally getting a contentious budget deal through the divided state legislature (Republicans have a majority in the Senate, while Democrats have a one-seat margin in the House). The showdown had become a saga in the state: It came nearly five months after the statutory deadline, making Pennsylvania the last in the country to approve a budget.
Shapiro called the deal “a stark contrast, frankly, with what happened in D.C., where [Democrats] didn’t stay at the table, they didn’t fight, and they got nothing.” It’s notable language from someone many are eager to slot into the “moderate” lane in 2028 — all the more so given the state’s senior senator, John Fetterman, was one of the eight Democrats who enabled the deal.
KY Gov. Andy Beshear made the subtext text, explicitly saying “we need a Democratic governor as the head of that ticket” while appearing in Nevada. Democrats’ 2028 primary schedule is still up in the air, but Nevada is likely to be an early primary state.
Morning Consult found Kamala Harris up in the 2028 Democratic primary contest. (Harris 29, Gavin Newsom 20, Pete Buttigieg 8, AOC 7). Of note: The pollster has been Harris’s friendliest this year and the only one to find her leading the field since the summer.
Harris raised my eyebrows when she made a surprise campaign stop for the Democrat running in a December special election for a House seat in Tennessee — which voted for Trump by 22 points. Draw your own conclusions.
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